Agriculture is the mainstay of the Nepalese population, contributing more than one fourth to the national economy and more than 60 percent on employment. Climate change seems to be major challenge to Nepalese agriculture due to higher dependency on rain fed agriculture. The study thus aims to examine the impact of climate change and variability on crop productivity using crop production data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and climatic data from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology located in three districts viz. Banke, Dailekh and Mugu districts. Multivariate time series regression analysis is used considering crop yield as dependent variable and precipitation, minimum and maximum average temperature as explanatory variables. The precipitation and average minimum temperature are found positively significant in most of the cases while the effect of average maximum temperature is negative in general. Precipitation seems to have more impact on rain fed agriculture while rising of maximum temperature is found to be positive impact in mountain district mainly for winter crops, while maximum temperature shows a positive impact on crop productivity at national level. Policy needs to be identified adaptation options for crops suitable in the different agro ecological belts as well as enhanced irrigation facilities in general to reduce risk from the climate change.
Asian Journal of Science and Technology
